Application of Black Scholes Complexity Concepts to Combat Modelling

Lanchester’s equations are commonly used as the basis for force-on-force combat models, even if only as a metamodel for a more complex combat simulation. This report examines whether attrition is adequately modelled by such Markov processes. It shows that the distribution of historical battle casualties is consistent with that obtained when attrition is modelled as an Ito process. The additional Wiener term can be regarded as representing the impact of the wider environment on attrition rates.